Michael Waterloo's 2024 fantasy baseball obsessions: Ty France, a deep (deep) sleeper in Toronto and more (2024)

Last season, Oakland first baseman Ryan Noda put up a statline of .229/.364/.406 with 16 home runs and 117 runs+RBI.

This offseason, after the trade to Milwaukee in the Corbin Burnes deal, Joey Ortiz is on the deep-league radar in NFBC drafts, going around pick No. 450. If the Brewers move Willy Adames, as some expect, Ortiz can provide a fantastic ROI on that draft spot.

“OK, thanks for the information, man. But what’s that have to do with anything?”

Well, Noda and Ortiz were two of my obsessions over the past two years. You know the deal by now with this piece. I highlight players who I have been, well, obsessed with targeting in drafts, or diving deeper into over the offseason up until draft day.

They vary depending on league context, so you’ll see some players with a Top 150 ADP or so. But I always, always try to target someone who is off of the radar overall because I believe in the skill-set that they possess.

The issue with the picks of Noda and Ortiz are that in the season I picked each of them, they didn’t do anything. For Noda, I was a year early on him. For Ortiz, who has yet to prove it yet at the big-league level, I appear to be a year early again on him.

That’s fine if you’re looking for deep players in keeper-based leagues, but for redraft leagues, being a year early means jack. Being this close on both, only to be a tad early, almost became my villain origin story. But instead, I spent the offseason trying to find a player who would qualify as a deep obsession, but still provide a return on investment this season, rather than finally cashing next year.

I’m baiting you here, of course, because the question you should be asking me is, “OK, what qualifies as a deep obsession?” Thanks for asking, friend!

For Noda, his ADP when I listed him was 1011. For Ortiz, it was 950. What I try to go with, as a rule of thumb, is someone with a post-800 ADP in the two months leading up to opening day.

Of course, we’ll get to who these players are shortly but, first, let’s look at how my 2023 obsessions did, as well as some not-as-deep obsessions I have for the 2024 season.

The Good:

• Alex Cobb, SP, SFG — ADP: 224
• Kyle Bradish, SP, BAL — ADP: 298
• Masataka Yoshida, OF, BOS — ADP: 176
• Bailey Ober, SP, MIN — ADP: 330
• Spencer Steer, 3B, CIN — ADP 382
• Graham Ashcraft, SP, CIN — ADP: 389
• Will Benson, OF, CIN — ADP: 470
• Kerry Carpenter, OF, DET — ADP: 444
• Edouard Julien, 2B, MIN — ADP: 588

The Bad:

• Ross Stripling, SP/RP, SFG — ADP: 279
• Joey Ortiz, SS, BAL — ADP: 950
• Hayden Wesneski, SP, CHC — ADP: 274

The Fine:

• Nick Castellanos, OF, PHI — ADP: 116
• Lars Nootbaar, OF, STL — ADP: 164
• Alek Thomas, OF, ARI — ADP: 377

The Ugly:

• Seby Zavala, C, CHW — ADP: 636
• Jesse Winker, OF, MIL — ADP: 239
• Oscar Colas, OF, CHW — ADP: 255
• Alex Kirilloff, OF, MIN — ADP: 369
• Kyle Stowers, OF, BAL — ADP: 477
• Griffin Jax, RP, MIN — ADP: 597

Alright, let’s get to it! Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you my obsessions for 2024:

Ty France, 1B, SEA — NFBC ADP: 345

In 2021, Ty France was trending up, to the point where he looked like he may be on the verge of a full breakout. In 2022, we saw that come to light, when he slashed .274/.338/.436 with 20 home runs. But then, 2023 happened — France took a step back in a big way, at least on the surface.

But those surface results have led to a big discount on France in 2024 drafts. But is it too big of a discount? Let’s look under the hood.

In most metrics — and not just the ones listed above that I cherry picked — France was better or just about the same as he was in 2022.

Case closed, right? Wrong.

As much as you can argue, “See! What he did last year was a fluke and his numbers should be what they were in 2022!”, you could also argue the opposite — that maybe he was due for negative regression.

But here’s why I’m buying in. France hurt his elbow on June 23, and he said it was something that made him change his swing and hurt him at the plate.

France was one of the #Driveline guys this offseason, after his teammate, J.P. Crawford went last offseason and enjoyed a breakout 2023 year.

France worked on keeping the barrel in the zone longer, and increasing his bat speed. That has me feeling comfortable about targeting him in my drafts after Pick 300. There’s a fantastic shot at a positive ROI at that price.

Hunter Brown, SP, HOU — ADP: 181

The percentage of me that cares about Hunter Brown’s surface stats is the same percentage of me cooking and eating brussel sprouts. None percent. Absolutely none.

This isn’t exactly a deep obsession with an ADP of 181, but this isn’t exactly a sleepers column, either. It’s players I’m fascinated with who I’m walking away with in multiple drafts — especially at their cost.

Being in on Brown isn’t exactly a contrarian stance. It’s likely that your favorite fantasy writer is in on Brown, too. It’s because he’s going to be an SP2 by the end of the year.

See, last year, his ERA was 5.09, but to say it louder for the people in the back: “We don’t care about his ERA!”

His indicators are what are leading us to believe that he’s going to be in for positive regression this year. Under the hood, Brown had a 4.27 xERA, 4.37 FIP, 3.52 xFIP, and a 3.74 SIERA. Those numbers were assisted by a 26.8K% and a holy unlucky .330 BABIP. Notice how I put “holy” as a secondary qualifying word to try to get you to come over to my side of the narrative? Words do matter!

With his arsenal, Brown is a big-time ground-ball pitcher. Among qualified arms last year, only Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Marcus Stroman, Brayan Bello and Framber Valdez had a higher ground-ball rate.

On the year, Brown allowed 157 base hits — 62 of them came via ground balls. It makes sense that if you’re a 52.2 GB% pitcher, you’re going to give up a lot of hits via the ground, as well.

Only six pitchers had a higher percentage of their total hits allowed via grounders than Brown’s 39.4 mark.

• Zach Eflin 42.4
• Bello 41.8
• Webb 41.7
• Cobb 39.8
• Brady Singer 39.5
• Sandy Alcantara 39.7

But you can argue that none of them were as unlucky as Brown, as his .330 BABIP was at least 0.11 points higher than anyone except for Singer (.330), and Singer is accepted as being just a guy as far as fantasy pitchers go.

Eighty-nine of the total hits that Brown allowed last year were against righties, and while the Astros’ defense was eighth in defensive shading amount (27.9 percent), there was a stark difference between shading versus lefties (56.3 percent) and against righties (6.1 percent). Brown’s GB% against righties (55%) was the sixth-highest mark in the league, so throwing some more shade (get it?) against righties may help him this year.

It’s funny. When I watch Brown — and it’s a comment I made to a friend who is doing late prep work, cramming for his draft — I see a lot of Justin Verlander. I thought I was alone in this, but like a good journalist, I researched it first.

It turns out I’m not alone.

Hunter Brown vs. (his idol) Justin Verlander, Mechanics. pic.twitter.com/x8AKa1Q90C

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 6, 2022

Luis Rengifo, 2/3/SS/OF, LAA — ADP: 235

If there’s a player with multi-positional eligibility out there for the taking, I’m going to target him. If he’s actually good, I’m targeting him even more. Novel concept, I know.

The Angels lineup is a lineup, and while Mike Trout is there, the once might-be Toronto Blue Jay who is now a Los Angeles Dodger Shohei Ohtani is not. It’s the eight players around Trout who we are looking at, and the player who stands out to me the most is Rengifo.

Yes, Logan O’Hoppe and Zach Neto both go ahead, or right around, Rengifo, but new skipper Ron Washington seems to be going with Neto’s request, which is keeping him in the ninth spot in the order.

RosterResource has Rengifo penciled in at No. 1 after there was consideration of having Nolan Schanuel hit in the lead-off spot. If we are getting even more Rengifo — a switch-hitter, who can, and will, play multiple positions — out of the leadoff spot, sign me up.

Last year, Rengifo posted an 83.1 Zone Contact rate, which was down from 2022 but still above league average. Washington is old school, so he’s going to want someone who can work the count, make contact in the zone, and doesn’t chase (Rengifo was league average in that department). But, in terms of working the count, Rengifo has some adjustments to make. I did the math so that you didn’t have to (who likes math?) — in 2023, Rengifo averaged 3.77 pitches per plate appearance. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, Rengifo ranked No. 161 out of 213 players.

See, the obsessions aren’t about just wearing rose-colored glasses — most of it is, of course — but it’s also looking at an area that is preventing a player from taking that next step.

And the projections really, really like Rengifo. Friend of The Athletic, Jordan Rosenblum, and I are in two dynasty leagues together, and when I acquired Rengifo, he slid in the DMs as smooth as Trea Turner slides into home plate to express his love for Rengifo. At the time, Steamer was the projection model that was available, and it has Rengifo for .261/.322/.421 with 17 homers and eight steals. THE BAT said to hold his beer (especially if you’re a fan of prospects, then hold his keg), as Derek Carty has Rengifo for 17 homers and 12 steals, with a lower slash line.

The Angels want to run. Washington wants the Angels to run. And if Rengifo is the leadoff hitter, and remains there, he will, in fact, run. The projections are light on the speed, and there’s at least 15 steals there for his taking.

Plug him in at MI, CI, or OF5 and enjoy the return.

This Year’s Deep Obsession

Damiano Palmegiani, 3B, TOR — ADP: 860

This is it. This is the one, friends. I can feel it in my bones. Unlike Noda and Ortiz, I won’t be a year too early on Palmegiani, as he’ll be fantasy viable this season. Let’s get into the reasons why, shall we?

It starts with Ohtani. Yes, Shohei Ohtani has led us to Palmegiani. Ohtani was never going to Toronto. He was always going to the Dodgers. But reports, and extended negotiations, led fans – and even the Jays’ brass – to feel like there was a chance he would land in The North, which halted other plans.

The Blue Jays went from Ohtani this offseason – and somewhat Juan Soto – to Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, Daniel Vogelbach, Eduardo Escobar, and Joey Votto.

That’s a good offseason… in 2019.

The Jays offense underperformed last season, yes, but none of those players — including the 39-year-old Turner and 40-year-old Votto — should be expected to turn the offense around. What’s more, the Jays didn’t bring back Gold Glove third baseman Matt Chapman, leaving the hot corner manned by none other than (*checks notes*) Cavan Biggio or IKF — depending where Davis Schneider slots in on defense.

Enter Palmegiani.

The bat is his carrying tool, as the power has continued to play for the 24-year old at each stop in the minors.

In 108 games in Double-A last year, Palmegiani slashed .249/.351/.463 with 19 home runs and six steals. He didn’t get a cup of coffee in the bigs last season, but he did play 20 games at Triple-A, where the power carried over and his walk rate – which has never been lower than 10.1% at any stop in the minors – increased to 15.6 percent, increasing his OBP to .427.

Palmegiani’s stock continued to rise in the Arizona Fall League, where he hit six homers (second-most in the AFL) with a slash line of .263/.366/.575. Most notably is that he played third base — and reportedly looked good doing so — in 17 of his 22 games.

Outside of his last name, the only thing argument for Biggio to still be an every-day player is his 2019 season. He’s a below-average bat, and a below-average fielder with a below-below-average arm.

As for IKF, he’s a fine player to have in the Whit Merrifield utility role, but he’s never posted a wRC+ higher than 91, and the most value he’s had for fantasy is that season he was catcher eligible.

The Jays have another pair of rookies — Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger — who could push for the third base job. But Martinez is a second baseman long term, and they’ll continue to develop him as such. Barger is the true wild card, as he has a leg-up with his arm on Palmegiani, but there are questions about his overall defense.

For an offense that was middle of the pack last year in runs scored and home runs, Palmegiani should be the first prospect to get a shot at the third-base job, and I think he’ll run with it.

The power can play in any park — 20-25 homers wouldn’t surprise me if he took over the job in early May — and the only two questions are how Palmegiani will handle the every-day grind at third base and if he can limit the strikeout percentage to the mid-20s.

Remember, Schneider came out of nowhere last year, too. This year, the late obsession to target is Damiano Palmegiani.

More Obsessions

Brett Baty, 3B, NYM — ADP: 357

Baty feels like a perfect post-hype sleeper. The Mets need him to handle third base, and he’s been written off too quickly after fewer than 450 plate appearances.

Louie Varland, SP, MIN — ADP: 304

Varland’s ADP is going to skyrocket with him likely making the Twins rotation to kick-off the season. He increased his velocity and his ability to miss bats last year. Is there really that big of a gap between him and Bailey Ober?

Prelander Berroa, RP, CHW — ADP: 600 (pre-injury obsession)

Ugh, this one stings. He was going to be the poster boy for this year before the shoulder injury. He was the guy to target for short- and long-term save opportunities on the South Side. I still love the skill, and I’m buying if his shoulder checks out OK.

A.J. Puk, SP/RP, MIA — ADP: 348

Can Puk hold up as a starter throughout the course of the season? That’s the true question. He looked like he was going to be a lights-out closer of the future for the Marlins last season, but the Fish suddenly need him in the rotation given the amount of injuries they’ve suffered.

Kyle Manzardo, 1B, CLE — ADP: 363

Sure, let’s send a 24-year-old top prospect to the minors for service time reasons. There’s no good reason that Manzardo isn’t starting on opening day for Cleveland. Buy the dip and hold on to him for the first few weeks if you can.

Jordan Lawlar, SS, ARI — ADP: 337

You may have to hold Lawlar a little longer than Manzardo, as there’s no real clear path to playing time yet (they love Geraldo Perdomo, folks). And they won’t call him up until he can play every single day. When he does get the call, look out.

Dominic Fletcher, OF, CHW — ADP: 657

Am I a sicko for having five shares of Fletcher this season? Probably, yeah, but hear me out – who on the White Sox are you really worried about stealing time away from him? Oscar Colas, maybe? At worst, Fletcher should pencil in as a strong-side platoon in right field in the middle-third of the lineup. I buy the skill-set here.

Colton Cowser, OF, BAL — ADP: 473

The Orioles have an embarrassment of riches offensively, and one of them is prospect Cowser. He’s impressed this spring, and he could — at worst — be the strong-side platoon partner with Austin Hays.

Jared Jones, SP, PIT — ADP: 471

Jones was lighting it up this spring, sitting 98 mph and easily touching 102 mph with decent command. So the Pirates sign Eric Lauer and Domingo Germán. Because that’s what the Pirates do. I am banking on talent winning out here eventually, and I expect Jones to make the rotation before Paul Skenes this season.

Bowden Francis, SP/RP, TOR — ADP: 634

The Alek Manoah bounce-back tour has hit a few snags this spring with a shoulder injury and, well, just not being the pitcher we hoped he’d be entering 2023. Francis is an intriguing deep-league play as he’ll hold down the No. 5 rotation spot for Toronto. Ricky Tiedemann, though, won’t be far away.

Nate Pearson, RP, TOR — ADP: 754

Jordan Romano? Down. Erik Swanson? Down. It could be Yimi Garcia SZN as the closer in Toronto, but if I’m taking a shot on one guy, it’s Pearson. Pearson’s stuff is electric and will play up in the ninth. He’s their future closer (he’s already somehow 27 years old) and don’t forget that he’s one of the guys who added a new splitter this offseason.

Ryan Weathers, SP/RP, MIA — ADP: 624

Just like Puk, this is about opportunity for Weathers. The Marlins are dealing with injuries to their starting rotation, which leaves an opening for Weathers to grab a rotation spot. He’s been a strikeout machine this spring.

David Festa, SP, MIN — ADP: 602

If the Twins rotation suffers another injury — or if Chris Paddack doesn’t have it anymore — keep an eye on Festa. He’s been a favorite pitching prospect of mine for the past couple of years, and he’s worth a flier in the reserves.

(Top photo of Ty France: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports)